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[PLUS] Implementation of the Tail Ratio Forecasting Model to Estimate Next Day Return

by CryptoDataDownload


Underlying Model Research
The Tail Ratio Forecasting model is developed in this paper "Returns Distribution Moments as One Day Ahead Forecasters of Crypto Currency Returns" by B Kachnowski to predict future asset prices. Extending previous research done by Quantopian, the research finds that" low order returns distribution moments seem to be useful for forecasting one day ahead crypto currency returns". What does it mean by "distribution moments"? The statistical moments are the mean, the standard deviation, the kurtosis, the top nth percentile, and the bottom nth percentile. The model is a multi variable Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model. The independent variables (the distribution moments) are ultimately used to predict the T+1 Bitcoin price; this models' utility could easily be explored for other asset classes. We create a fully functional Tail Ratio Model in Python and use the data found at CryptoDataDownload; once run, the results are printed to the terminal.

Model Implementation
*Please note first* that this model has not been backtested or used in a live trading environment setting. The Python code allows you to control these parameters before executing:
    1) Which data exchange to use
    2) Which cryptocurrency asset
    3) Length of Window Size
    4) Upper Confidence Interval (must be less than 1)


Obviously, some of the bigger exchanges for #1 are Binance, Bitstamp, and Gemini. The window size is the rolling window to calculate each of the distribution moments. The confidence interval uses a function to estimate the 95th percentile confidence interval (default). The paper uses a window size of 14, and we likewise do the same. However, it is likely prudent to optimize the parameter list. While the concept will be explored in a future article, in theory it would be done like this: 1) calculate new linear models for a range of window sizes and take the one that produces the highest R^2 score. 2) Likewise optimize the confidence interval threshold. Typical distribution thresholds are .95, .975, and .99. More details for how the Tail Ratio Model functions can be found in the linked paper.






Please please please note that estimation values can vary greatly based on the parameters, and no model is perfect or allows a crystal ball into the future. Some models may provide an edge. The R^2 can vary greatly from time period to time period and so can the accuracy of any return estimation


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Notice: Information contained herein is not and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. The information has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable; however no guarantee is made or implied with respect to its accuracy, timeliness, or completeness. Author does not own the any crypto currency discussed. The information and content are subject to change without notice. CryptoDataDownload and its affiliates do not provide investment, tax, legal or accounting advice.

This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the author, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, investment, tax, legal, accounting advice. You should consult your own investment, tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction. All content published by CryptoDataDownload is not an endorsement whatsoever. CryptoDataDownload was not compensated to submit this article. Please also visit our Privacy policy; disclaimer; and terms and conditions page for further information.

THE PERFORMANCE OF TRADING SYSTEMS IS BASED ON THE USE OF COMPUTERIZED SYSTEM LOGIC. IT IS HYPOTHETICAL. PLEASE NOTE THE FOLLOWING DISCLAIMER. CFTC RULE 4.41: HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. U.S. GOVERNMENT REQUIRED DISCLAIMER: COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION. FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING HAS LARGE POTENTIAL REWARDS, BUT ALSO LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. YOU MUST BE AWARE OF THE RISKS AND BE WILLING TO ACCEPT THEM IN ORDER TO INVEST IN THE FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKETS. DON’T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN’T AFFORD TO LOSE. THIS IS NEITHER A SOLICITATION NOR AN OFFER TO BUY/SELL FUTURES OR OPTIONS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED ON THIS WEBSITE. THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF ANY TRADING SYSTEM OR METHODOLOGY IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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