Historical Volatility Review
Historical volatility is basically just a measure of how much prices (or a measure of anything) fluctuates over a period of time. It is a measure of past volatility; and volatility means "movement" in this context. Properties of volatility can be foundational in the construction of trading strategies.
Important Properties of Volatility
Historical volatility is more cyclical than price; it tends to move in cycles rather than being random or constant over time. Cycles in this context is often interchangeable with the other concept of "market regimes", ie. "high volatility regime" is a period of sustained volatility.
Realized volatility is highly autocorrelated. This means that high volatility generally sees continued volatility in the periods immediately following before dissipating.
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THE PERFORMANCE OF TRADING SYSTEMS IS BASED ON THE USE OF COMPUTERIZED SYSTEM LOGIC. IT IS HYPOTHETICAL.
PLEASE NOTE THE FOLLOWING DISCLAIMER.
CFTC RULE 4.41: HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL
PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN
EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS,
SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE
DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY
TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. U.S. GOVERNMENT REQUIRED DISCLAIMER: COMMODITY FUTURES
TRADING COMMISSION. FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING HAS LARGE POTENTIAL REWARDS, BUT ALSO LARGE POTENTIAL RISK.
YOU MUST BE AWARE OF THE RISKS AND BE WILLING TO ACCEPT THEM IN ORDER TO INVEST IN THE FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKETS.
DON’T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN’T AFFORD TO LOSE. THIS IS NEITHER A SOLICITATION NOR AN OFFER TO BUY/SELL FUTURES
OR OPTIONS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES
SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED ON THIS WEBSITE. THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF ANY TRADING SYSTEM OR METHODOLOGY IS NOT
NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
