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Federal Govt Bitcoin Auction Results Analysis


     The federal government regularly hosts online auctions nationwide for sale of seized or surplus goods. It is has made headlines over the last few years as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin (and sometimes Bitcoin Cash) have made their way into these auctions for one reason or another. Records indicate that the GSA generated over $1.87mm in proceeds from the sale of Bitcoin (BTC) in 2021. This value was generated over a several month span starting in mid March 2021 and spread across forty-five (45) individual auctions! The first auction in March saw extra enthusiasm from bidders, who ultimately paid a premium of approximately 18% over market value.

Some quick comparison analysis is available in the below table; where we can view auction dates, sale prices, and a comparison to the market price of Bitcoin closest to the minute of auction closing time. On the far right side, the immediate gain / loss result column represents the percentage that auction participants either overpaid or underpaid relative to market price of BTC at the time the auction ended. Negative values represent overpaying compared to market price; and conversely, positive values represent a discount to market price. Out of 45 auction results, only 5 ended up paying a premium price (higher than market) for Bitcoin! Therefore, auction participants won the auction with a discount to immediate price approximately 88% of the time! The average discount to market price was ~3.3% (when auction closed at a discount to market value).



Here is a more formal, technical explanation for what each column value represents:

    BTC Amount - This is the amount of BTC available in that specific auction
    Winning Bid - This is the final, winning bid of the auction
    Cost Per Coin - This is our calculation of what the user paid per "1 BTC" in price
    Closing Price End Date - This is the price of BTC around the time of the auction close (*Not exact)
    Immediate Gain / Loss Result - This is our calculation comparing the value difference between the auction winning bid to actual Bitcoin price at the same time. Negative values represent paying a premium to market price and positive values represent a discounted price.

    BTC Amount Winning Bid Cost Per Coin Closing Price End Date Immediate Gain / Loss Result
    1.2500 $62,275 $49,820 $54,160 8.71%
    0.1000 $4,465 $44,650 $48,028 7.57%
    1.5000 $75,875 $50,583 $54,160 7.07%
    0.2000 $10,194 $50,970 $54,340 6.61%
    2.0000 $103,025 $51,513 $54,340 5.49%
    1.7500 $80,005 $45,717 $48,028 5.05%
    0.2500 $14,135 $56,540 $59,315 4.91%
    2.0000 $92,030 $46,015 $48,028 4.37%
    0.1500 $7,820 $52,133 $54,340 4.23%
    1.0000 $46,084 $46,084 $48,028 4.22%
    0.2500 $12,994 $51,976 $54,160 4.20%
    0.5000 $28,500 $57,000 $59,315 4.06%
    1.5000 $69,235 $46,157 $48,028 4.05%
    1.7500 $91,000 $52,000 $54,108 4.05%
    0.5000 $26,026 $52,052 $54,160 4.05%
    1.0000 $52,011 $52,011 $54,108 4.03%
    0.5000 $23,090 $46,180 $48,028 4.00%
    0.2500 $11,552 $46,208 $48,028 3.94%
    1.2500 $39,025 $31,220 $32,270 3.36%
    0.7500 $43,040 $57,387 $59,315 3.36%
    0.7500 $23,900 $31,867 $32,807 2.95%
    0.1000 $5,280 $52,800 $54,340 2.92%
    0.7500 $35,025 $46,700 $48,028 2.84%
    1.0000 $57,728 $57,728 $59,315 2.75%
    1.7500 $54,825 $31,329 $32,175 2.70%
    1.2500 $74,505 $59,604 $61,150 2.59%
    0.2500 $14,505 $58,020 $59,315 2.23%
    0.7500 $43,105 $57,473 $58,650 2.05%
    0.7500 $45,005 $60,007 $61,150 1.91%
    1.0000 $60,205 $60,205 $61,150 1.57%
    0.7900 $45,625 $57,753 $58,650 1.55%
    0.7500 $40,025 $53,367 $54,160 1.49%
    1.0000 $57,800 $57,800 $58,650 1.47%
    1.0000 $57,810 $57,810 $58,650 1.45%
    1.5000 $90,505 $60,337 $61,150 1.35%
    0.5000 $16,000 $32,000 $32,270 0.84%
    2.0000 $63,825 $31,913 $32,175 0.82%
    1.5000 $48,025 $32,017 $32,175 0.49%
    1.0000 $32,026 $32,026 $32,175 0.47%
    0.5000 $29,215 $58,430 $58,650 0.38%
    0.1000 $3,275 $32,750 $32,270 -1.47%
    0.0500 $1,775 $35,500 $32,270 -9.10%
    0.4400 $30,005 $68,193 $61,150 -10.33%
    0.7501 $53,104 $70,796 $57,649 -18.57%
    0.0250 $1,095 $43,800 $32,270 -26.32%



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